The risk of a US government shutdown has risen sharply, with the probability hitting nearly 80%.

The crisis stems from the fierce conflict between the two parties over immigration policy.
Democrats refuse to approve funding for the Department of Homeland Security to push for immigration reform, while Republicans reject their demands.
The Senate lacks enough votes to pass the funding bill.
If it fails, public welfare agencies will be hit hard, and partisan games have put public interests aside.

美国政府停摆风险飙升至近 80%，核心因 ICE 执法枪击事件激化两党矛盾。民主党以反对国土安全部拨款倒逼移民执法改革，共和党让步未达诉求，参议院投票票数难凑。ICE 握有备用资金不受影响，而应急、海岸警卫队等民生机构将遭冲击，中期选举前的党争让公共利益让位于派系博弈。

fierce conflict — 激烈的矛盾 / 冲突
immigration policy — 移民政策
Senate — 参议院
public welfare agencies — 公共福利机构
partisan games — 党派博弈
interests — 利益